NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Nine Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 28, 2025, for Tropical Depression Nine, which strengthened from Invest 94L and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine earlier this weekend while moving northward near the central Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador, and portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach County / Martin County Line northward to the Flagler County / Volusia County Line.
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical Depression Nine is located about 105 miles south of Nassau in the Bahamas, and is moving to the north at 7 mph (11 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a general north-northwest to northward motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas through Monday and then turn sharply east-northeastward starting on Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the forecast, moving away from the southeast U.S. coast.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in good agreement through 72 hours that the system will move northward to north-northwestward across the central and northwestern Bahamas, remaining offshore the east coast of Florida.
After 72 hours, the models show low confidence with a bifurcation of solutions, but the track guidance this cycle has made another south and eastward shift. Given the slow motion so far, the system has remained south of a track bifurcation point seen in yesterday’s ensemble guidance, making a sharp east-northeastward turn more likely starting on Tuesday and continuing through the forecast.
A majority of computer models suggest the system will slow down or stall offshore of the southeast U.S. coast before turning sharply east-northeastward, with much more acceleration at the end of the forecast period. Both the ECMWF (European model) and GFS (American model) agree with this scenario.
Some ensemble members still show it reaching the coast. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing and speed of this eastward turn, and the changes might not be fast enough yet. Recent trends indicate an eastward shift, potentially influenced by Hurricane Humberto, reducing the chance of direct landfall along the Carolinas but still posing risks of heavy rain and coastal impacts.
The official NHC forecast track is very close to the HCCA consensus aid, but blends it with a little more of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) by the day 5 forecast.
Tropical Depression Nine has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday.
NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
September marks the peak of hurricane season, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.
Copyright 2023-2025 FloridaWord.com
