NOAA: Tropical Depression 7 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, September 17, 2025, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Seven that is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle later today while moving westward across the central Atlantic.

No tropical storm watches or warnings are currently in effect.

Interests in the central and western subtropical Atlantic should monitor the progress of this system.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Seven Projected Path

Tropical Depression Seven is located about 1,185 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and is moving to the west at 13 mph (21 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slow motion toward the west is expected through Friday, followed by a motion toward the west-northwest over the weekend.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is expected to move across the central subtropical Atlantic through early next week, with no immediate coastal impacts anticipated.

Tropical Depression Seven Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show Tropical Depression Seven moving westward across the central Atlantic, with a potential northward bend next week.

While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is some spread in the forecast track, particularly regarding the northward turn and potential long-range impacts.

The official NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS (American model) and the TVCN consensus model.

Tropical Depression Seven Strength

Tropical Depression Seven has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Slow strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Gabrielle later today, with potential for further development into a hurricane by the weekend.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

September marks the peak of hurricane season, with historical data from NOAA and the National Weather Service showing increased tropical storm and hurricane activity during this period.