Thunderstorms, Hurricane Erin Impact For North Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a forecast for North Florida predicting numerous showers and thunderstorms with a potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy rainfall on Sunday, August 17, 2025, with increased thunderstorm risks into Monday.

According to NWS Jacksonville, thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening, with slow-moving storms capable of producing heavy downpours.

Stronger thunderstorms could develop later, potentially leading to locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially in urban and flood-prone areas.

Strong storm potential is expected from 1 PM to 9 PM. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will be likely.

Storms will be capable of producing:

• Heavy downpours, with rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour, which may lead to localized flooding, mainly in urban areas.
• Frequent lightning.
• Gusty winds up to 45-55 mph from wet downbursts.

North Florida cities at risk for thunderstorms include regions within the shaded area such as:

• Lake City
• Jacksonville
• Jacksonville Beach
• Saint Augustine
• Palm Coast
• Gainesville
• Ocala
• Palatka
• Live Oak

Rough Surf, Rip Currents From Hurricane Erin

Surf is expected to increase next week due to east swells arriving from distant Hurricane Erin. Even though this system is forecast to be well east of the area, deadly rip currents and rough surf will affect northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

Jacksonville Weather Forecast

Today (Sunday)
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light north wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 78. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.