NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Erin 2025 Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Erin located over the tropical Atlantic that is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane by the time it nears Puerto Rico.
Tropical Storm Erin (formerly Invest 97L) is located about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and is moving west at 22 mph (35 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 72 hours that the system will move in a westward direction over the open tropical Atlantic.
After 72 hours, the models begin to diverge as to where, and how sharply, Erin will curve to the northwest.
The official NHC forecast track is slightly left, or south, of the previous one over the next 3-5 days, and very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. This is also very similar to the mean of the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) solutions.
The spread of the track models suggests near-average confidence in the NHC forecast.
Tropical Storm Erin has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days. Erin is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane by the time the storm nears Puerto Rico on Saturday.
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