NOAA: Invest 98L Projected Path To Texas, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, August 14, 2025, due to the presence of Invest 98L located over the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico.

If Invest 98L develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Fernand.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 98L Projected Path

Invest 98L is a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche that is producing organized showers and thunderstorms (marked with an orange shaded area).

NHC forecasters say that Invest 98L is projected to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or two, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development.

A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical development.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en route to investigate this system.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 40% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 98L 2025 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in good agreement during the first 72 hours that the system will move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico towards northern Mexico and southern Texas.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in August according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.