NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Erin 2025 Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 15, 2025, due to the presence of Hurricane Erin located over the tropical Atlantic that is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane by the time the storm nears Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Erin (formerly Invest 97L) is located about 460 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and is moving west-northwest at 18 mph (30 km/h). NHC forecasters say that this motion is expected to continue into the weekend.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 72 hours that the system will move in a west-northwestward direction over the eastern Caribbean.
After 72 hours, the models begin to diverge as to where, and how sharply, Erin will curve to the north.
The regional hurricane models lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope with the GFS (American model) and Google DeepMind models remaining on the eastern edge of the guidance.
The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one in the short term, and was nudged slightly west beyond day 3 closer to some of the simple consensus aids.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Hurricane Erin has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly to the north of the center.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale by the time the storm nears Puerto Rico on Saturday.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected.
This rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port – San Juan has directed the setting of Port Condition X-RAY at 4 p.m. Thursday for all seaports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to Hurricane Erin.
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