NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Erin 2025 Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Public Advisory Number 22 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Saturday, August 16, 2025, due to the presence of Hurricane Erin located over the tropical Atlantic that remains a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Hurricane Erin (formerly Invest 97L) is located about 130 miles north-northwest of Anguilla, and is moving west at 15 mph (24 km/h). NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. The forecast cone shows the storm curving northward, potentially affecting the southeastern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast with rough conditions next week.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 24 hours that the system will move in a west-northwestward direction, passing north of the northern Leeward Islands.
After 24 hours, the models show significant spread on when and how sharply Erin will curve to the north, with the guidance envelope shifting westward overall. The ECMWF (European model) has shifted west, increasing the spread, and the NHC track is to the east of consensus during the northward turn.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted westward due to the shift in guidance, lying near the consensus but adjusted left throughout the forecast period.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.
Erin remains a Category 5 hurricane, but an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting, leading to fluctuations in intensity. Gradual weakening is expected after 24-72 hours due to increasing shear, but it will remain a major hurricane for several days.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 48 hours.
Previous watches for areas like St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten appear to have been discontinued as the storm passes north.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Sunday. Gusts to tropical-storm force may occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and southeastern Bahamas.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port – San Juan has directed the setting of Port Condition X-RAY at 4 p.m. Thursday for all seaports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to Hurricane Erin.
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