NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Erin 2025 Projected Path
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Public Advisory Number 24 at 5:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Sunday, August 17, 2025, due to the presence of Hurricane Erin located over the tropical Atlantic that remains a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Hurricane Erin (formerly Invest 97L) is located about 155 miles north of San Juan Puerto Rico, and about 310 miles east of Grand Turk Island, and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h). NHC forecasters say that this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday.
On the official NHC forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday. The forecast cone shows the storm curving northward, potentially affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast with rough conditions next week.
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show the NHC track forecast has been nudged to the west in the short term based on the initial motion and latest model guidance.
The models indicate Erin should gradually turn toward the north and eventually the northeast, taking the core east of the Bahamas on Monday and then midway between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast around mid-week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
Erin is a Category 3 hurricane and is growing in size. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes. Re-strengthening is possible in the next day, but gradual weakening is expected later due to increasing shear.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port – San Juan has directed the setting of Port Condition X-RAY at 4 p.m. Thursday for all seaports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to Hurricane Erin.
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