NHC: 80% Chance Tropical Storm Dexter Forms Off North Carolina, Invest 95L Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 3, 2025, due to the presence of Invest 95L located off the coast of North Carolina.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Dexter.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 95L Projected Path

Invest 95L is a tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina (marked with a red “X”).

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with Invest 95L. The low is producing gale-force winds, and it appears that the system is becoming separated from the nearby frontal zone to its north and west.

NHC forecasters say that if the shower and thunderstorm activity persists, the low would continue to acquire tropical characteristics, with a tropical storm likely to form later tonight or on Monday while moving east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph over the western Atlantic.

This system has a 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 80% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 95L 2025 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a east-northeastward direction over the open western Atlantic and pass north of Bermuda.

Additional Developing Systems

In addition to Invest 95L, two other systems are brewing over the Atlantic.

The second system (marked by an orange shaded area) is a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The third system (marked by a yellow shaded area) is an area of low pressure that could form in a couple of days a few hundred miles northeast of Florida.

NHC forecasters say that some gradual development of this system is possible by midweek as the system drifts to the northwest.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in August according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.