NOAA: Invest 92L Projected Path To South Carolina, Spaghetti Models

CHARLESTON, South Carolina – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 PM Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, July 4, 2025, due to the presence of Invest 92L that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days off the coast of South Carolina.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Chantal.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 92L Projected Path

Invest 92L (marked with a red shaded area) is an area of low pressure located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast.

NHC forecasters say that recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system has become better defined today with an area of strong winds located on its east side.

Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center.

A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward.

This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect should provide more details on the system’s structure.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 92L 2025 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show Invest 92L moving to the north-northwest toward South Carolina and North Carolina.

Both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) are in general agreement with this track for the first 48 hours.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in early July, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.