NOAA: 30% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Near Florida

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 AM Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, July 14, 2025, due to the presence of a system that may develop near Florida.

The system (marked with a yellow shaded area) is a trough of low pressure located offshore of the Atlantic coast of northern Florida that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters.

This system is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support some gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Dexter.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in July, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.