NOAA: 20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Near Florida

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, July 12, 2025, due to the presence of a system that may develop over Florida.

The system (marked with a yellow shaded area) is a broad area of low pressure that could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf of America.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane List is Dexter.

NOAA forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity begins to pick up in July, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.