NASA Large Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Probability Rises to 1.9% for 2032

Illustration of an asteroid passing by Earth.

NASA has reported an updated probability increase for asteroid 2024 YR4 potentially colliding with Earth in 2032, raising it to 1.9% from 1.6% the previous day. 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center– the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. 

The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec. 31, 2024.

Impact Probability: The probability of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, has been adjusted. Recent estimates suggest a 1.9% chance of impact, which translates to odds of 1 in 53. Conversely, there’s a 98.1% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely.

Size and Potential Impact: Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters in size. If it were to impact Earth, it could release energy equivalent to 50-100 kilotons of TNT, potentially causing significant local damage but not global devastation.

Impact on Earth: An asteroid impact with this energy would not cause global extinction-level events but could lead to:

Significant local damage, especially if it hits a populated area or critical infrastructure.

A sizable crater (depending on composition of the ground, entry angle, etc.).

Localized tsunamis if it impacts water bodies.

Potential for regional climate effects due to dust and debris in the atmosphere, but not to the extent of a nuclear winter.

Air Burst vs. Ground Impact: If the asteroid were to explode in the air (like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013, which was much smaller), the damage could be more widespread in terms of shockwaves and thermal radiation but less concentrated than a direct ground impact.