NASA increased the probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032 to 3.1% from earlier estimates, which had climbed steadily from 1.2% in late January to 2.3% earlier in February, reflecting new observational data refining the asteroid’s trajectory.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, this near-Earth asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters wide.
A 3.1% probability translates to a 1-in-32 chance of hitting Earth, meaning there’s still a 96.9% likelihood it will miss. While this figure may sound concerning, experts emphasize that such increases are not unexpected as initial orbital uncertainties narrow with more observations.
The asteroid’s current Torino Scale rating of 3 indicates a “close encounter warranting attention,” but historical trends suggest that further data often reduces such risks to zero.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth now and will fade from view by April 2025, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to study it in March to better assess its size and path. It won’t be observable again until June 2028.
If it were to strike, 2024 YR4 could release energy equivalent to about 7.8 megatons of TNT—comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event, capable of devastating a city-sized area but not posing a global threat.
Its potential “risk corridor” spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, though exact predictions remain uncertain.
NASA’s past success with the DART mission in 2022 suggests deflection is feasible if needed, though no such action is currently planned.