MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 7 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael over the Caribbean which is forecast to strengthen into Category 1 Hurricane Rafael before making landfall on Cuba.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Rafael Projected Path
Tropical Storm Rafael is located about 305 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, and is moving to the northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days.
On the official NHC forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.
Tropical Storm Rafael Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that Tropical Storm Rafael will move in a general northwestward direction towards the Cayman Islands, then pass over the western tip of Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
After that time, there remains some significant spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast.
The GFS (American model) weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF (European model) keeps a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion.
The deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario, but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a westward motion.
Tropical Storm Rafael Strength
Tropical Storm Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makmaklandfall in Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.
Later, the environment over the Gulf of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong southwesterly shear and drier air.
Tropical Storm Rafael Watches and Warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.