NOAA: Tropical Depression 19 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 7 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, November 14, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Depression 19, which is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall on Central America.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Sara.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 19 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 19 (formerly Invest 99L) is located about 90 miles northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border and is moving to the west at 15 mph (24 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion should continue through today, taking the system across thewestern Caribbean Sea. 

The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Tropical Depression 19 Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show Tropical Depression 19 meandering westward over the Caribbean during the next few days towards the Yucatan Peninsula.

Both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) are in agreement with this track for the first 48 hours.

Tropical Depression 19 Strength

Tropical Depression 19 has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 km/h), with higher gusts. 

Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the systemis forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America.

Tropical Depression 19 Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border, and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border,  and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity still remains through the end of November according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.