MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s
National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 4 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, due to the presence of major Category 3 Hurricane Rafael over the Caribbean which is forecast to make landfall on Cuba.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rafael Projected Path
Hurricane Rafael is located about 45 miles south-southwest of Havana, Cuba, and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend.
On the official NHC forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Hurricane Rafael Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 48 hours that Hurricane Rafael will move in a general northwestward direction towards the western tip of Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico and curving west-northwestward.
By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS (American model) showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance.
The official NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period.
Hurricane Rafael Strength
Rafael is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum of 115 mph (185 km/h), with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).
Hurricane Rafael Watches and Warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos, the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.
