NOAA: Hurricane Rafael Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, November 8, 2024, due to the presence of Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rafael Projected Path

Hurricane Rafael is located about 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande, and is moving to the west at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. 

After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Hurricane Rafael Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 12 hours that Hurricane Rafael will move in a general westward direction over the Gulf of Mexico.

By 24 hours, Many of the models (including the ECMWF (European model), UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western Gulf and northern Mexico. 

However, the GFS (American  model) and Canadian models show a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S. and a ridge to the east. 

Hurricane Rafael Strength 

Rafael is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum of 110 mph (175 km/h), with higher gusts.

Rafael remains a powerful compact hurricane.

Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. 

Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.