NOAA: 90% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Caribbean

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 1 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, November 12, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.

The system (marked with a red shaded area) is a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea that is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.  

Afterward, the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally northwestward, by early next week.  

Interests across the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

This system has an 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 60% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Sara.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity still remains through the end of November according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.