MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, November 2, 2024, due to the presence of two systems that may form into a tropical cyclones within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.
The first system (marked with a red shaded area) is a broad area of low pressure that is forming over the southwestern Caribbean.
NHC forecasters say that additional gradual development is possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
This system has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 60% chance within the next 48 hours.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Rafael.
The second system (marked with a yellow shaded area over Puerto Rico) is a trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico that is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean.
NHC forecasters say that slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
This second system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity remains high through the end of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.