NHC: 20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Caribbean

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 7 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, November 8, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.

The system (marked with a yellow shaded area) is a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic. 

NHC forecasters say that some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. 

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Sara.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was September 10, hurricane and tropical storm activity still remains through the end of November according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.