NOAA: Hurricane Milton Projected Path To Florida, Spaghetti Models

TAMPA, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, October 9, 2024, due to the presence of Category 4 Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Milton Projected Path

Hurricane Milton is located about 190 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the northeast at 17 mph (28 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening.  

A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday.  

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Hurricane Milton Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 24 hours that Hurricane Milton will move in a general northeastward direction toward Sarasota, Florida. Both the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) show a similar track.

The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

Hurricane Milton Strength

Milton is a major Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h), with higher gusts.

Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday.  

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane Milton Watches and Warnings 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, as well as from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and for the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line to the Palm Beach/Martin County line.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay; Lake Okeechobee; the Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach and from north of Suwannee River to Indian Pass; the Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County line to Flamingo; from north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia; and the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for areas north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina.