NHC: Invest 94L Projected Path To Caribbean, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 15, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 94L Projected Path

The system (marked with an orange shaded area over Puerto Rico) is an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 

NHC forecasters say that Invest 94L is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. 

A tropical depression could form as Invest 94L begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.

This system has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 94L 2024 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in strong agreement during the first 72 hours that Invest 94L will move in a general westward direction, then a west-northwestward direction toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Both the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) show a similar track.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Nadine.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.