NHC: Invest 94L Projected Path To Caribbean, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 17, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 94L Projected Path

The system, marked with a yellow shaded area east of the Leeward Islands, is a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles from the region, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

NHC forecasters say that some slow development is possible during the next few days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.

Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 94L 2024 Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, show strong agreement during the first 72 hours that Invest 94L will move westward, then west-northwestward toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Both the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) forecast a similar track.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Nadine.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.