NOAA: 5 Tropical Cyclones May Form As Peak Hurricane Season Nears
MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued a tropical weather outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 5, 2024, due to the presence of five systems that may develop into tropical cyclones within the next seven days over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
If any of these systems develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Francine.
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (Near Texas)
A trough of low pressure is causing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, affecting coastal areas in Louisiana and Texas. However, upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for development by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches. Heavy rainfall is anticipated along the northern Gulf Coast over the next 24 hours, but significant development is not expected.
Northwestern Atlantic (Near North Carolina)
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force.
NHC forecasters say that this system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low reaches cooler waters by late Saturday, further development is unlikely.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Near Yucatan Peninsula)
A tropical wave moving westward over the western Caribbean Sea has shown a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is unlikely before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula by Friday. However, conditions may become more favorable for development later in the weekend as the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Central Tropical Atlantic (Near Leeward Islands)
A tropical wave located east of the Leeward Islands is experiencing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent development in the coming days. Conditions may become more favorable for gradual development early next week as the system moves toward the southwestern Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development is possible as the system drifts northwestward or northward over the next several days.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.
