MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida,has issued a tropical weather outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico as of 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday, September 4, 2024, due to the presence of four system that may develop into tropical cyclones within the next seven days.
Northwestern Atlantic
A non-tropical low-pressure area is currently situated a few hundred miles east of North Carolina, generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
NHC forecasters say that there is a possibility that this system could develop subtropical characteristics over the coming days as it moves north-northeastward, staying offshore from the northeastern United States.
This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward at around 20 mph, causing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the central Caribbean Sea. While the system currently shows little chance of development, there is a slight possibility that conditions could become more favorable early next week as it approaches the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
This system has a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.
Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is also under observation. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with limited potential for development in the short term. The system is moving west-northwestward at a speed of 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive to development by the weekend.
This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean
In the eastern tropical Atlantic, an elongated trough of low pressure is contributing to disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible as it drifts northwestward over the next few days.
This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
If any of these systems develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Francine.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane a4ctivity data.