NHC: Invest 92L Projected Path To Caribbean, Spaghetti Models

  

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 10, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 92L over the Atlantic that is forecast to approach the eastern Caribbean.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 92L Projected Path

Invest 92L is an elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical AAtlanticthat continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity (marked with an orange "X"). 

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 40% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 92L Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a general west-northwest to northwest direction. After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models on whether Invest 92L will move westerly toward Puerto Rico or northwesterly toward Bermuda.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.