NHC: Invest 91L Projected Path To Texas, Spaghetti Models

 

BROWNSVILLE, Texas – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 8, 2024, due to the presence of Invest 91L that is forecast to strengthen into a tropical depression off the Texas coast.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Francine.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 91L Projected Path

Invest 91L is a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (marked with a red “X” near Mexico). 

Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph on its western side.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or so. 

Invest 91L is forecast to move generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional strengthening possible by the middle of this week. 

Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. 

Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. 

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in route to to investigate the system this afternoon.

Invest 91L Computer Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in good agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a general northwest then northward direction. After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, but the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model) show a similar northeast curve toward the Louisiana coast by Thursday.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.