NHC: Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 To Hit South Carolina, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, September 16, 2024, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone 8, which is forecast to strengthen into a tropical depression before making landfall on South Carolina.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 Projected Path

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 (formerly Invest 95L) is located about 95 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina and is moving to the north-northwest at 5 mph (7 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two

On the official NHC forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in poor agreement during the first 48 hours that the system will move in a general northwest direction before making landfall somewhere on South Carolina.

The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 Strength

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, but steady weakening is anticipated after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday.

Potential Tropical CCyclone8 Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season was September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.