NHC: 70% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms Behind Helene

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 4, 2024, due to the presence of a another system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days behind Helene over the Gulf of Mexico.

The system (marked with a red shaded area over the Yucatan Peninsula) is a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

NHC forecasters say that gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico.  

Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Milton.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.