NHC: 40% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms Behind Helene

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook update at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 1, 2024, due to the presence of a another system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days behind Helene over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The system (marked with an orange shaded area over the Yucatan Peninsula) is a broad trough of low pressure that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. 

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. 

Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

This system has an 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Leslie.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.