MIAMI, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days over the Caribbean and then head to Florida.
The system (marked with an orange “X”) is a large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands that is producing limited shower activity due to dry air aloft.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
This system has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.
Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Debby.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, the end of July is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.