BROWNSVILLE, Texas – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued an updated Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, July 5, 2024, due to the presence of record-breaking Hurricane Beryl over the Caribbean, the first named hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Beryl Projected Path
Hurricane Beryl (formerly Tropical Depression Two and Invest 95L) is located 730 miles east-southeast of Brownsvile, Texas, and is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula today.
On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend.
Hurricane Beryl Spaghetti Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Hurricane Beryl will move west-northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula.
However, there is a significant spread among the computer models (GFS-based American model, ECMWF European model, and UKMET model) after 48 hours once the tropical cyclone passes the Yucatan Peninsula.
The ECMWF ensembles show stronger solutions on the north side of the track envelope. The overall guidance of this cycle has also made a notable shift northward toward Texas and is a bit slower than earlier model runs.
The official NHC forecast track has been shifted in that northern direction, quite close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in that direction may be necessary later today.
Hurricane Beryl Strength
Beryl is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h), with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening is expected as Beryl moves inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
Hurricane Beryl Watches and Warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, and the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, and for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.
Hurricane Beryl Breaks Records in the Atlantic
Hurricane Beryl has broken several records for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.
Beryl is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during June, beating the previous record set by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.
Beryl is the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Beryl is the strongest June hurricane in terms of wind speed, outpacing Hurricane Audrey of 1957.
Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, overtaking the previous record set by Hurricane Emily on July 16, 2005.
Beryl also became the strongest July hurricane ever recorded.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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