TAMPA, Florida – NOAA‘s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 2, 2024, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone 4, which is tracking toward the Gulf Coast of Florida.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 Projected Path
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 (formerly Invest 97L) is located 285 miles southeast of Key West, Florida, and is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h).
NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.
On the official NHC forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 Strength
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 km/h), with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 Watches and Warnings
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca Grande.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge, including the Dry Tortugas; the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge; and the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 Computer Models
Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 will move west-northwest towards and over Cuba, then hook to the north over the Gulf of Mexico and move parallel to the west coast of the Florida peninsula before making landfall somewhere between Fort Myers and Cedar Key, with the greatest consensus for landfall around Tampa.
However, the GFS (American model) moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 hours it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF (European model) and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico.
If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Debby.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
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| NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency. |
Although peak hurricane season isn’t until September 10, the end of July is when tropical storm and hurricane activity begins to pick up, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service‘s historical hurricane activity data.