National Hurricane Center: 50% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms In Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, June 15, 2024, due to the presence of a system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days.

The system is a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week  (marked with an orange shaded area).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

The system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  

These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

According to NOAA, most June storms begin in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA Prevailing Atlantic Hurricane Tracks June

If this system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane List is Alberto.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.