NOAA: Tropical Storm Oscar Projected Path To Cuba, Bahamas, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday,  October 21, 2024, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Oscar over the Caribbean which has made landfall in Cuba and is forecast to impact the central Bahamas.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Oscar Projected Path

Tropical Storm Oscar is located about 5 miles west of Guantanamo, Cuba and is moving to the west at 2 mph (4 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Oscar Computer Models 

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement during the first 48 hours that Tropical Storm Oscar will move in a general west-northwestward direction over Cuba, then make a turn into a northeast direction toward the central Bahamas.

The GFS (American model) is showing a weaker Oscar drifting slowly over the central Bahamas, while the ECMWF (European model) keeps a stronger Oscar accelerating northeastward. 

The track guidance is again faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Tropical Storm Oscar Strength 

Tropical Storm Oscar has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba later today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Oscar Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi, the south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo, and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey and the Central Bahamas.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Peak hurricane season is September 10, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.