NOAA: Texas In Hurricane Beryl Projected Path Cone of Uncertainty, Spaghetti Models

   

BROWNSVILLE, Texas – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued an updated Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, July 3, 2024, due to the presence of record-breaking Hurricane Beryl over the Caribbean, the first named hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Beryl Projected Path 

Hurricane Beryl (formerly Tropical Depression Two and Invest 95L) is located 75 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph (30 km/h). 

NHC forecasters say that this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. 

After Jamaica, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Hurricane Beryl Spaghetti Models

Computer models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are in general agreement that Hurricane Beryl will move west-northwest over the Caribbean. 

However, there is a significant spread among the computer models (GFS-based American model, ECMWF European model, and UKMET model) after 48 hours once the tropical cyclone passes the Yucatan Peninsula.

The GFS and HWRF models show a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico.  This part of the official NHC track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

Hurricane Beryl Strength

   

Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h), with higher gusts.  

Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two.  However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. 

Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). 

Hurricane Beryl Watches and Warnings 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault, and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the south coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl Breaks Records in the Atlantic

Hurricane Beryl has broken several records for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Beryl is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during June, beating the previous record set by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.

Beryl is the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005. 

Beryl is the strongest June hurricane in terms of wind speed, outpacing Hurricane Audrey of 1957.

Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, overtaking the previous record set by Hurricane Emily on July 16, 2005.

Beryl also became the strongest July hurricane ever recorded.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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Invest 96L Projected Path, Spaghetti Models